The Voice of Freedom and Warning
To say Obama has committed another epic foreign policy failure it to merely state the obvious. The Ukrainian crisis is a prime example of Obama’s philosophy of American disengagement in world affairs. Obama thinks he can use his self delusional superior intellect to talk reason to a man that was a Lt. Colonel in the Soviet KGB. Putin has been watching Obama and his administration and their foreign policy fiascos with great interest and decided now was the time to exert his will and to back Obama down and into a corner. The cuts to America’s military have not gone unnoticed nor has his retreat from Iraq and Afghanistan. Obama has made Red Line threats to both Syria and Iran and has done nothing when those Red Lines have been crossed. Obama has played the disengagement game all over the world and America’s enemies have filled the voids. Obama plays a political game and Putin plays a power game and so far Putin is winning in a shutout.
Obama has made speeches expounding a unified front with Europe to enact sever sanctions against Russia without having such sanctions backed up by and European countries. Obama assumes because he says it that makes it fact while not understanding that Putin has Europe over a barrel. Germany is the driving economic force in Europe at the present and Germany gets at least 50% of its natural gas from Russia. A chart showing Europe’s dependency is shown below.
[i]According to the European Commission, the share of Russian natural gas in the member states’ domestic gas consumption in 2007 was the following:
Czech Republic 77.6%
The shares of Russian natural gas in the domestic gas consumption in non-EU countries in Europe were in 2006:
Republic of Macedonia 100%
Serbia, Montenegro 87%
As can be seen above, Europe is heavily dependent on Russian natural gas and oil imports to fill their countries energy needs. They know if they go along with any real economic sanctions that Putin has no problem with shutting off their supply. As Russia and Putin have watched Obama commit fiasco after fiasco so has Europe and they have learned to not trust anything Obama says. Obama has been dealing in tokenisms as Putin has been dealing with force knowing that Obama will do nothing to stop him. Obama sends a single naval ship and a few airplanes to show how strong he is and Putin sends at least 30,000 troops the Ukrainian border. Obama gives press conferences and Putin sinks one of his own ships to trap the Ukrainian Navy in Donuzlslav bay. Obama’s Sec. of State Kerry says America will not be involved in any armed conflict and Putin schedules a massive air defense drill. Putin wants Crimea mainly because of its warm water port of Sevastopol that the Russian navy leases to base its Black Sea Fleet and will stop at nothing to guarantee its continued use. House Intelligence Chair Mike Rogers (R-MI) summed the Ukraine crisis up perfectly by saying “Putin is playing chess, and I think we’re playing marbles.”Putin knows he holds all the cards when dealing with Obama and Obama is clueless how to get out of the corner Putin has backed him into. Obama has positioned America to basically stand alone against Putin and if Putin is allowed (and nothing seems to be able to stop him) to take Crimea back it will surely have a ripple effect around the world. China is watching the Ukrainian crisis with great interest and if Putin succeeds in reuniting Crimea to Russia then China can be expected to exert its claim to ownership of the Senkaku Islands it has been arguing with Japan about. They can also be expected to take possession of the Zhongye Island’s from thePhilippines. A ripple effect will likely cause North Korea, Syria, Iran, the Al Quida and the Taliban to be emboldened to defy Obama and America.
In the contest of wills Putin is winning hands down against Obama because although Obama is a Narcissist, Putin is a Czarist with visions of reconstituting the USSR with him as its Czar. It is a dangerous game they both are playing and Obama needs to remember that Chess trumps Marbles any day.
Watch for the next Sentinel Alert coming soon.